Expectations for Future Political Violence in the U.S. (August 2022)

Expectations for Future Political Violence in the U.S. (August 2022)

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    Respondents were asked, "Thinking about politics in the U.S., do you expect there to be more political violence in the future, less political violence in the future, or about the same amount of political violence?"
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categoryTotal
More political violence58%
Less political violence8%
The same amount of political violence21%
Don't know/No opinion13%
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    Respondents were asked, "Thinking about politics in the U.S., do you expect there to be more political violence in the future, less political violence in the future, or about the same amount of political violence?" Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
More political violence61%47%61%
Less political violence9%3%8%
The same amount of political violence19%26%20%
Don't know/No opinion12%24%11%
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    Respondents were asked, "Thinking about politics in the U.S., do you expect there to be more political violence in the future, less political violence in the future, or about the same amount of political violence?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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CategoryLean DemocratNot very strong DemocratStrong Democrat
More political violence72%56%57%
Less political violence7%7%10%
The same amount of political violence8%25%23%
Don't know/No opinion13%12%10%
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    Respondents were asked, "Thinking about politics in the U.S., do you expect there to be more political violence in the future, less political violence in the future, or about the same amount of political violence?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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CategoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
More political violence60%58%64%
Less political violence11%10%5%
The same amount of political violence21%18%20%
Don't know/No opinion8%14%11%
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    Respondents were asked, "Thinking about politics in the U.S., do you expect there to be more political violence in the future, less political violence in the future, or about the same amount of political violence?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
More political violence64%44%63%
Less political violence10%9%6%
The same amount of political violence17%28%19%
Don't know/No opinion9%19%12%
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    Respondents were asked, "Thinking about politics in the U.S., do you expect there to be more political violence in the future, less political violence in the future, or about the same amount of political violence?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLean liberalSomewhat liberalExtremely liberal
More political violence58%60%74%
Less political violence8%16%4%
The same amount of political violence22%15%17%
Don't know/No opinion12%10%6%
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    Respondents were asked, "Thinking about politics in the U.S., do you expect there to be more political violence in the future, less political violence in the future, or about the same amount of political violence?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLean conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
More political violence57%70%61%
Less political violence12%4%3%
The same amount of political violence19%17%22%
Don't know/No opinion12%9%14%
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    Respondents were asked, "Thinking about politics in the U.S., do you expect there to be more political violence in the future, less political violence in the future, or about the same amount of political violence?" Race is calculated according to the race variable.
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CategoryWhiteBlackHispanic
More political violence63%46%53%
Less political violence6%12%11%
The same amount of political violence20%24%23%
Don't know/No opinion11%19%14%
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    Respondents were asked, "Thinking about politics in the U.S., do you expect there to be more political violence in the future, less political violence in the future, or about the same amount of political violence?" Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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CategoryMaleFemale
More political violence63%54%
Less political violence10%7%
The same amount of political violence18%24%
Don't know/No opinion10%15%
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    Respondents were asked, "Thinking about politics in the U.S., do you expect there to be more political violence in the future, less political violence in the future, or about the same amount of political violence?" Community type is based on the following question, " Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
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CategoryUrbanSuburbanRural
More political violence50%61%65%
Less political violence13%7%3%
The same amount of political violence23%20%20%
Don't know/No opinion14%12%12%
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    Respondents were asked, "Thinking about politics in the U.S., do you expect there to be more political violence in the future, less political violence in the future, or about the same amount of political violence?" Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
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Category18-2930-4445-6465+
More political violence46%54%61%67%
Less political violence17%10%5%5%
The same amount of political violence23%24%21%15%
Don't know/No opinion15%12%13%13%
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    Respondents were asked, "Thinking about politics in the U.S., do you expect there to be more political violence in the future, less political violence in the future, or about the same amount of political violence?" Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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CategoryNo HSHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
More political violence67%49%55%61%60%74%
Less political violence4%9%10%7%8%5%
The same amount of political violence14%23%20%16%24%18%
Don't know/No opinion15%19%15%16%9%3%
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    Respondents were asked, "Thinking about politics in the U.S., do you expect there to be more political violence in the future, less political violence in the future, or about the same amount of political violence?" Religiosity is calculated according to the IMPORT variable.
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CategoryExtremely importantSomewhat importantNot very importantNot at all important
More political violence60%50%57%65%
Less political violence6%12%11%5%
The same amount of political violence20%21%27%18%
Don't know/No opinion14%16%5%12%
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    Respondents were asked, "Thinking about politics in the U.S., do you expect there to be more political violence in the future, less political violence in the future, or about the same amount of political violence?" Fundamentalism is calculated according to the LITERAL variable.
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CategoryThe Bible is the actual word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is the word of God but not everything in it should be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is a book written by men and is not the word of God.Don't know.
More political violence56%58%61%57%
Less political violence9%7%10%9%
The same amount of political violence22%22%18%21%
Don't know/No opinion14%13%11%14%

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